NBA free agency begins at 6 p.m. ET on June 30, but its significance has waned over the past decade as stars increasingly sign extensions before hitting the open market. Cap-space teams face structural disadvantages, limiting player movement. This year's top free agents include restricted star Jalen Duren, veteran LeBron James, and several players likely to re-sign with their current teams. Using the BORD$ valuation system, here are the top 25 free agents and their projected market values.
Hello? Anyone here?
NBA free agency starts at 6 p.m. Eastern on June 30, but in the last decade, the prominence of this date has taken a serious nosedive.
The reason: Nobody good changes teams this way anymore. Rule changes on unrestricted free agency have incentivized both teams and players to agree to extensions long before they hit the open market, while on the demand side, operating as a cap space team is an increasingly onerous way to live compared to the advantages of using Bird rights and the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (NTMLE). Those two detriments to high-impact player movement are so hard-wired into the league that we barely have time left over to blame the tax aprons.
Last season, for instance, only one of my top 11 free agents changed teams in free agency (Myles Turner), and getting to that required the Milwaukee Bucks to move heaven and earth by waiving and stretching Damian Lillard and exhausting every possible means of using non-Bird free-agent rights and minimum-player exceptions to build the rest of the roster.
As a result, any movement we get from free agency is likely to come from the NBA’s senior-citizen class: 41-year-old LeBron James’ future in L.A. seems in some doubt, while 36-year-old whippersnapper James Harden seemed like he might be in a similar situation before his midseason trade to Cleveland.
We might have a lot of running in place this July. Maybe we get a surprise in the form of a gigantic bid for Austin Reaves or Jalen Duren that makes their current teams blink, but don’t count on it.
Besides James, the best unrestricted free agent on my board who seems to have a reasonable shot at changing teams is … Keon Ellis? Sandro Mamukelashvili? In fact, a lot of the players on my list might not become free agents at all, or will only do so as a ruse to arrive at their next already-agreed-upon contract with their current employer.
However, the threat of other teams offering a contract still matters, and because of that, the seven potential cap-room teams (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, Detroit, Memphis and both Los Angeles teams) will factor prominently in this summer’s calculus, even if just as a bogeyman for agents to use in negotiating contracts.
Cap space, however, is only half the problem. The next question in free agency is how to value players. That’s where I come in.
I developed a player valuation system called BORD$ (short for “Big Old Rating Dollars”) that uses analytics and playing time data from the last two seasons, projects values for the coming season based on a player’s age and performance and then converts the projected performance and playing time into a salary estimate based on the projected cap in 2026-27 of $165 million. (More on the methodology from this story five years ago.)
What follows is my list of this summer’s top 25 free agents (we’ll also have values for every realistic potential free agent at every position). I say “realistic” because there is a class of players I did not include: players with non-guaranteed contracts whose teams would be foolish to cut them (such as Detroit’s Duncan Robinson), or minimum team options that seem unlikely to be declined due to a team’s cap situation (such as Toronto’s Jamal Shead).
Following that revision, I was left with 24 players whom BORD$ values as being worth at least more than the non-taxpayer MLE, projected to be $15 million next season. It doesn’t mean that’s what they’ll get, but it’s a nice starting point for figuring out what might be “fair” in a more even market.
With that, here’s how BORD$ values the top 25. (Ages listed are as of June 30, the official start of free agency.)
BORD$ is based on regular-season production, so it does not include Duren’s playoff performance. I think we can all agree his spring was just a wee bit underwhelming, as both Wendell Carter Jr. and Jarrett Allen outplayed him, and the Pistons often played better with him off the court.
Duren’s playoff PER of 13.8 was barely half his regular-season mark (26.0, sixth in the league). Lowlights included a minus-1.7 BPM, a modest 55.3 true shooting percentage after leading the league at 68.8 in the regular season and ending up on the business end of a Jamal Cain murder dunk in the first round against the Orlando Magic.
Because of that, I’d say we can lower that $44 million estimate. Duren is supermax-eligible after making the All-NBA Third Team, but even getting the lower max (five years, $239 million) coming off his rookie deal will be a challenge after the postseason he had. On the other hand, Duren is only 22 and coming off an All-Star regular season, and cap-room teams like Brooklyn and Chicago will be circling with offer sheets if the Pistons get cold feet. A five-year, $200 million deal would value him at $40 million a year and keep him in Detroit through much of his prime; that feels like a potential endpoint.
Harden has a complicated contract structure that contains both a player option for $42 million and a partial guarantee that lets the Cavs sever him for just $13.3 million if he picks up the option.
You probably needn’t worry about either, as it is in both Harden’s and the Cavs’ interests to decline the option and ink a new deal, likely in the range of two years and $65 million to $70 million. That arrangement would slightly lessen the Cavs’ imposing salary obligations for the coming season while giving Harden a bit more long-term insurance (at least to the extent that’s possible entering an age-37 season). Either way, it would be stunning if he’s anywhere but Cleveland on opening night.
Reaves obviously will opt out of his current deal, which pays him a mere pittance at $14.9 million for 2026-27, and the Lakers can use his artificially low cap hold ($20.9 million) to fill the roster with cap room before coming back to sign him on a more market-appropriate contract. That landing point would seem about four years and $140 million, based on BORD$, for a 28-year-old who has defense and durability questions but also showed last season he can be a high-usage, lead initiator on offense.
The Lakers, however, may be forced to go higher. As one of the most prominent unrestricted free agents on the board, Reaves could command an over-the-top max offer from a talent-needy rival such as the Brooklyn Nets.
Hartenstein’s team option is for $28.5 million, which means in a normal situation, the Thunder might just pick up the option, or maybe pick it up and extend his contract off that number.
The reality of Oklahoma City’s financial situation may require a more delicate touch. One realistic approach would be for the Thunder to decline the option and re-sign Hartenstein to a long deal that spreads out the money over four or five years, even if the back end becomes an overpay. For example, declining the option and inking either a four-year, $110 million deal or a five-year, $140 million pact would shave about $4 million off his cap hit for 2026-27 and give the Thunder more wiggle room against the looming tax aprons.
James is still an extremely valuable player, and my aging algorithm may underrate his potential contributions in 2026-27; we really have no data to work with as far as “high-usage forward entering his age-42 season” is concerned. At this point, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal (he can’t sign for more than three because of the over-38 rule), so the questions are about money (somewhat) and fit (quite a bit).
Resolving the latter part could require a major haircut on the former, as the type of teams that could both use James and have a reasonable chance of contending for something important are also not the type to have extra cap space lying around. Even a return to the Lakers is complicated, as paying him would take L.A. out of some cap-room scenarios that won’t be available to the Lakers in future summers when Reaves is (presumably) making roughly triple what he is now.
Henüz yorum yok. İlk yorumu siz yazın.