Just about everyone reckons Vladimir Putin is in deep trouble in Ukraine. Everyone – meaning Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his European backers and western military analysts and commentators – seems to believe Russia’s dictator is heading for humiliation. They could all be wrong, of course. But what if they’re right? How might a desperate, cornered Putin, fearful for his policy and person, react to the prospect of defeat? On past form, he will escalate, not capitulate. His options range from trolling YouTube to waging nuclear war.

For Ukraine, the latest news is mostly good. Using sophisticated Ukrainian-made drones and missiles, it has forced the invaders on to the back foot. Russia’s tally of dead and wounded is said to be running to 30,000 each month. Its advance has stalled – and in some places has been reversed. Ukrainian airstrikes deep into Russian territory are bringing the war home to a misled, disillusioned public. St Petersburg burns. Fuel shortages cause panic buying. Prices and taxes are rising. Putin’s 2022 “special military operation”, which was supposed to bring swift victory, has now lasted longer than the first world war.

Ukrainians still suffer daily, ever more indiscriminate air attacks. But speaking to the Guardian last week, Zelenskyy sounded optimistic that the nightmare may be near an end. His view is backed, up to a point, by western experts. Jack Watling, a land warfare specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote this month that Russia’s battlefield combat power is faltering and a ceasefire may be within reach. “Putin’s savagery is exceeded only by its futility. Slowly but surely, he is losing his war,” wrote the US commentator Seth Stodder.